Ukraine

Speaker 1

NATO has stated that it is ready to respond to possible escalation by Russia on Europe's eastern flank. According to the Alliance's chief general, Giuseppe Picavo-Dragone, NATO continues to work on increasing its armed forces both in numbers and in the level of technical sophistication. At the same time, he emphasized the irresponsible behavior of Russia over recent weeks and months. Moscow continues to test the resolve of the allies and aims to undermine trust and weaken the unity of the Alliance, the general reasoned. Ihor Chalenko is with us on a live link. He is a political scientist, head of the Center for Analysis and Strategy. My greetings to you, Mr. Ihor.

Ігор Чаленко

Good day, greetings.

Speaker 1

I really liked this wording. Mr. Kavo-Dragone, NATO is ready to respond to possible escalation on Russia's part. And was there no escalation before this? Well, like, can you just not respond to what happened before? Doesn't it count? Forgotten, like a nightmare?

Speaker 2

You know, in this situation I can only recall the words of Donald Fredovich Trump, who, to the question, "Well, there is escalation going against European partners, allies of Ukraine," to which Trump replied, "Well, it's been going on for five years already. Five years." Well, that is, in principle, I agree that right now these are more elements of such a rhetorical game, considering the actual escalation that is taking place, and in various spheres. We see how the increase in subversive steps,

Speaker 2

We see, effectively, constant threats coming directly from Putin. Well, yes, they have claimed they did not intend to fight anyone and so on, but over the last month, such threats have been made toward Europe at least three times. And plus, what has effectively begun—I call it the hidden nationalization of European assets—formally they are presented as temporary management, for example, of Danone, Leroy Merlin, and so on, SLI. But taken together—it must be viewed as a whole—Putin is indeed continuing the path of escalation.

Speaker 1

Regarding the answers. Le Monde, the French publication, writes that France is already entering a hybrid war and is conducting non-public military measures in response to Russian hybrid attacks. Mr. Ihor, before that was Germany, which, well, perhaps it can be said that it also entered this hybrid war by closing Russian houses, expelling diplomats and so on, but this, well, this is an incomplete entry, it's not even a hybrid entry, it's just, well, they just responded officially in some way. Is deep involvement of individual European countries possible in—hybrid, perhaps, involvement, deep, hybrid—in those actions that Russia is committing? Well, like, if we're not declaring war, then let's just get involved in the same way without a declaration of war.

Speaker 2

Well, I will tell you honestly, without a declaration of war, the best option is to help others and give the opportunity to prolong sanctions against Russian individuals and legal entities. And in this situation, I will remind you that France joined Slovakia in demanding that Usmanov and Fridman be removed from the sanctions lists. Well, how does that happen? How? That is, on the one hand, we hear truly very great rhetorical devices, and on the other hand, [we see] where maximum support is needed. This does not mean that France does not support Ukraine there. It does. But we understand that this is not the time for double moves, double standards. Because that is precisely what they are—double standards. That same France, I will remind you, by the way, is the largest consumer of Russian liquefied gas. And this is exactly what shows that, yes, clearly, official Paris is also seeking a balance for itself somewhere. But, well, we see that Russia is taking advantage of this. And, I agree that one can call them however one likes—hybrid, non-hybrid measures, or those steps that the Russian Federation takes. But it is clear that there must be political will here; there should not be any hindrances. In politics, not everything is so straightforward. And Moscow very skillfully exploits all of this, sowing discord among European countries and among European elites in general.

Speaker 1

Let's move to the UN here, to what will be happening next week. Ukraine could become one of the main topics of the meeting between the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Lavrov, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Their meeting in New York is currently being discussed within the framework of the UN General Assembly. The Russian Ministry of Miserable Affairs stated that the Ukrainian issue will be among the key topics of Lavrov's negotiations during his work at the UN. At the same time, there is no final agreement on the meeting yet. And will there be? And again, such productivity. How then to measure such a meeting? Because the last meeting, in my opinion, was completely counter-productive for Russia. I mean Lavrov and Marco Rubio.

Speaker 2

Indeed, if we're talking about their last meeting, how long was this meeting? 30 minutes, 30

Speaker 1

minutes

Speaker 2

in Manila, where every story remained as it was and Lavrov tried once again to conjure the spirit of Anchorage and point things out, to which Rubio clearly indicated that it's over, Anchorage is gone, and so on. Therefore, in the current situation, to be honest, I do not expect any breakthroughs specifically from the meeting of the heads, accordingly, the foreign policy departments of these countries, for one simple reason. They express, usually indeed, the tip of the iceberg. In the Russian Federation, this is usually an element of larger propaganda overall. I will remind you that Lavrov does not actually participate in negotiations regarding the end of the war; those are other people. And Lavrov here plays more, let's say, the mouthpiece of the official position, which is meant to frighten everyone. And demonstrated these absolutist frameworks that the Russian Federation usually establishes. Therefore, it is also obvious that in New York, on the sidelines of the Assembly, this meeting will likewise be to once again tell frightening claims that Russia will somehow achieve its so-called goals of the so-called SVO.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Mr. Ihor, for joining us and for the explanations. Ihor Chalenko was on the direct line, political scientist, head of the Center for Analysis and Strategies.